Peak TV Is Over

John Landgraf, the FX chairman, coined the term “Peak TV” at the Television Critics Association press tour in August 2015. The specific observation was that the total annual volume of scripted English-language television series had passed 400 for the first time, up from roughly 180 a decade earlier. Landgraf predicted, at the time, that the growth pattern was unsustainable and that the specific production volume would eventually have to contract.

The contraction took longer than Landgraf initially predicted. Scripted series counts continued climbing through 2022, reaching a peak of approximately 600 original scripted series across broadcast, cable, and streaming platforms. The 2024 numbers, which Landgraf released at the January 2025 TCA tour, confirmed the inflection. The total has dropped to approximately 510 scripted series, a 15% reduction from the 2022 peak.

This is, I want to argue, the most consequential industrial shift in American television since the 2012-2015 streaming-expansion period. I will try to describe what is happening and what it means.

The specific numbers

Landgraf’s 2024 survey, the most specific source for these counts, breaks down as follows:

• Broadcast network scripted series: Approximately 80 series. Down from approximately 90 in 2022. Stable across the last decade, with modest secular decline.
• Cable scripted series: Approximately 120 series. Down from approximately 180 in 2022. The largest specific contraction is here.
• Streaming scripted series: Approximately 310 series. Down from approximately 340 in 2022. The streaming contraction is smaller in absolute terms but meaningful.

The streaming-origin series count peaked in 2022 and has been declining modestly. The cable series count peaked earlier (2018) and has been declining more significantly. The broadcast count has been relatively stable.

Why streaming specifically slowed

Three overlapping factors.

First, streaming subscriber growth has plateaued. Netflix, Disney+, Max, Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+, and Apple TV+ have, collectively, approximately saturated the global addressable market for paid streaming subscription. Further subscriber growth requires either price increases (which produce incremental rather than new-category revenue) or geographic expansion into markets with lower per-subscriber revenue potential. In either case, the specific capital-investment-to-subscriber-growth ratio that funded the 2017-2021 expansion is no longer available.

Second, streamer profitability discipline has tightened. Netflix reached profitability in 2014 but operated at minimal margins for most of the subsequent decade. Disney+, Max, and the other major streamers have been investing at loss-absorbing levels throughout their operating histories. The combination of Wall Street pressure and saturated subscriber growth has forced each of these services to prioritise profitability over growth, which specifically translates to reduced content investment.

Third, individual series budgets have increased substantially. The per-episode budgets for prestige scripted television have risen from approximately $5-8 million in 2015 to approximately $12-18 million in 2024, with specific series reaching $20-30 million per episode (The Rings of Power, House of the Dragon, Masters of the Air, Silo). Even with reduced volume, the per-series spend has increased enough that total content spending has not contracted as dramatically as the series count.

Why cable collapsed faster

The specific cable-television scripted contraction is steeper than the streaming contraction for specific reasons.

Cable’s economic model depends on the cable-bundle subscription fees that viewers pay their MSOs (multi-system operators, the cable-television distribution companies). These fees are, in aggregate, called “affiliate revenue” for the cable networks. Across the last decade, affiliate revenue has declined substantially as households have cut the cable bundle. AMC Networks, Discovery (pre-WBD merger), and other cable-heavy media companies have experienced revenue declines of 30% or more across the 2018-2024 period.

This affiliate-revenue contraction has specifically starved cable-network scripted production. AMC, Starz, FX, and the other cable networks have all reduced their scripted output. Cable’s specific contribution to the Peak TV numbers was always dependent on affiliate revenue funding, and the funding has been withdrawn.

The employment consequences

The contraction is being experienced, in the industry’s specific labour markets, as a significant employment reduction.

Writers’ Guild data indicates that total WGA-covered writer employment in 2024 was approximately 80% of its 2021 peak. The union’s unemployment rate within its membership is at historically high levels. The 2023 strike, which secured specific contract improvements, has coincided with a material reduction in total employment opportunities.

Directors’ Guild data shows similar patterns. Episodic television directing, which had been a significant employment pipeline across the 2015-2022 period, has contracted substantially.

Below-the-line labour (cinematographers, editors, production designers, art departments, crew) has experienced proportional contractions. The 2024 IATSE contract negotiations reflected specific anxieties about the contraction in the employment base.

What this means for the shows being made

Three specific quality-adjacent shifts are observable.

First, risk aversion has increased. Streamers are less willing to commission specifically unusual or specifically uncommercial projects. The middle-tier scripted series (not flagship, not cancellation-bait) has contracted fastest. Streamers are producing either clear flagship productions or clear lower-budget volume-plays, with less in between.

Second, episode orders have shortened. The eight-episode-per-season default has tightened, in many cases, to six. Specifically expensive productions that would have received ten-episode orders five years ago are receiving eight today.

Third, production pace has slowed. Streamers are committing to longer lead times between seasons of ongoing productions. The 3-4 year gap between Severance Seasons 1 and 2, and the 2.5+ year gaps between Stranger Things seasons, are becoming the standard rather than the exception.

What survives

Specific categories of production continue to receive investment at or above previous levels:

Flagship franchise television. House of the Dragon, The Mandalorian, Stranger Things, The Last of Us, The Rings of Power, and similar franchise productions continue to receive major investment, often at record per-episode budgets.

Specific reality and unscripted programming. Reality and unscripted content has grown faster than scripted content across the contraction period. Several streamers have specifically expanded their unscripted investment as scripted spending has contracted.

International productions. Streamers have increased their international (non-US) production investment relative to US production. Korean, Spanish, and British productions specifically have been cost-effective relative to the American scripted market.

Animation. Adult-audience animation has grown faster than most scripted live-action categories, reflecting specific cost advantages and specific audience loyalty dynamics.

Where we go

The most plausible forward trajectory is that the scripted series count continues to contract for the next twelve to twenty-four months, stabilising somewhere in the 450-480 range by 2027 or so. This would represent a total peak-to-trough contraction of approximately 25%, comparable to the prior contractions in the American entertainment industry (the 2008 financial-crisis contraction, the 1988 writers’ strike contraction).

The specific recovery trajectory after the stabilisation is uncertain. The commercial conditions that produced Peak TV (aggressive streaming investment, venture-like subscriber-growth metrics, willingness to tolerate sustained operating losses) are not coming back. The post-Peak TV equilibrium will be smaller, more cost-disciplined, and more concentrated in specific flagship productions.

I will continue tracking Landgraf’s annual survey as the authoritative numeric source. The next data point arrives in January 2026. My expectation is continued contraction, at a moderating rate. Peak TV is over. What replaces it is, as of early 2025, still being determined.