Amazon's MGM and the Bond Problem

Amazon closed its acquisition of Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer in March 2022 for $8.45 billion, at the time the second-largest acquisition in the company’s history. The deal gave Amazon control of MGM’s film and television library, including approximately 4,000 films and 17,000 television episodes, plus active franchises including James Bond, Rocky, and The Hobbit (the last via a convoluted licensing arrangement).

Thirty-two months into Amazon’s ownership, the James Bond franchise has not released a new theatrical film. There is no Bond film currently in production. The trade press, having spent most of 2024 speculating about the reasons, has now begun to report specifics. I want to summarise what is actually known.

The Broccoli arrangement

James Bond, as a film-franchise property, is not a simple piece of intellectual property that Amazon can direct. The franchise has, since 1962, been produced by Eon Productions, a company controlled by Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson, the daughter and stepson of original Bond producer Albert R. “Cubby” Broccoli. Eon Productions has, by long-standing contractual arrangement with the studios that have distributed Bond films over the decades, creative control over the franchise.

The current distribution and financing arrangement gives Eon effective approval over all major creative decisions regarding Bond: the choice of actor, director, screenplay, production schedule, and marketing approach. The studio (currently Amazon/MGM) provides the financing and distribution infrastructure. Eon provides the creative direction.

This arrangement has worked well across the franchise’s history. It is, as of 2024, not working.

What Broccoli wants

Barbara Broccoli’s publicly-stated position, across multiple interviews over the last two years, is that James Bond remains a theatrical-first property that requires specific creative conditions to produce. Those conditions include: a carefully-chosen actor approaching the role with a specific long-term commitment; a specific director selected in consultation with the actor; a screenplay developed over several years of revision; and a theatrical-exclusive release window.

Broccoli has also indicated, less publicly but through multiple reported sources, specific concerns about Amazon’s corporate approach to the franchise. She is reportedly resistant to: franchise-extension spinoffs (Moneypenny films, Q films, television series featuring supporting characters); day-and-date streaming release on Prime Video; and specific data-driven marketing approaches that Amazon has indicated interest in applying.

What Amazon wants

Amazon’s publicly-stated position is that James Bond is an “exciting part” of the MGM library and that Amazon respects Eon’s creative control. Internal communications reviewed by multiple trade publications suggest a more complicated picture.

Amazon executives have, in confidential communications, expressed interest in expanding the Bond franchise into a “Bond universe” of connected productions. This is the model that Disney has used for Marvel and Star Wars, Warner Bros. is using for DC, and Paramount is using for Mission: Impossible-adjacent productions. The Bond universe, if built, would plausibly include a Young Bond film series, a Miss Moneypenny series, a series focused on MI6 more broadly, and a television component for Prime Video.

Broccoli has not endorsed any of these extensions. She has also not, publicly, ruled any of them out.

Where the stalemate leaves the franchise

The last Bond film, No Time to Die, was released in October 2021 (its COVID-delayed premiere after an initial April 2020 schedule). That film ended the Daniel Craig era. No actor has been cast as the next Bond. No director has been publicly attached to the next film. No release date is publicly projected.

This is a structurally unusual situation. Historically, Bond films have arrived at intervals of two to four years. The 2021-to-2024 gap with no successor announced is the longest active-franchise pause in Bond’s six-decade commercial history.

What is changing

A series of developments across 2024 suggest the stalemate may be approaching resolution.

In September, trade publications reported that Amazon and Eon had completed a restructured agreement that clarified specific approval rights. Under the new agreement, Eon retains creative approval over the main Bond theatrical film series, but Amazon gains approval authority over franchise extensions that do not involve the James Bond character directly.

In October, Broccoli and Wilson announced that David Heyman (Harry Potter, Gravity, Marriage Story) had been engaged as creative producer for the next Bond film. The announcement did not include an actor, a director, or a release date, but it did, for the first time since No Time to Die, signal that the franchise is actively developing the next film.

In early November, Denis Villeneuve was reported by Variety to be in early negotiations to direct the next Bond. Villeneuve has not confirmed. The report is, as of this writing, unconfirmed by Eon or Amazon.

What to watch

The specific question that will determine the next Bond film’s commercial future is the actor casting. Historically, Bond actors have been cast from a specific pool: British or Commonwealth-born, in their early-to-mid thirties at the time of casting, with enough established screen presence to carry the franchise but not so much established presence that the casting competes with the character.

The names that have been reported in association with the role across the last two years include: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, James Norton, Theo James, Tom Holland (unlikely), Henry Cavill (too old and too physically specific), Regé-Jean Page, and Callum Turner. None of these have been confirmed. The casting decision, when it arrives, will be the clearest signal of how the Broccoli-Amazon relationship is actually functioning.

The Bond franchise is, at this writing, both Amazon’s most valuable acquired asset and its most operationally frustrating one. Whether Amazon can successfully extend the franchise into the “Bond universe” model while preserving Eon’s quality control is the key strategic question for the entire MGM acquisition.

My bet: a new Bond film will be announced within six months. The actor will be surprising. The release will be theatrical-first. The expanded universe will be quieter than Amazon originally wanted. Broccoli’s position will, on balance, hold.